Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid – The ultimate battle between Champions League seat competition and tactical game

1. Historical confrontation: Atletico Madrid absolutely suppresses it. Can Osasuna break the situation at home?

As a classic showdown between the mid-range La Liga teams and giants, the history of Osasuna's confrontation with Atletico Madrid is almost a "one-way crushing" script. In the last 10 matches, Atletico Madrid has an overwhelming advantage with a record of 9 wins and 1 draw, and 7 of them achieved zero marks. Classic battles worth noting include:

September 2023: Atletico Madrid defeated Osasuna 3-1 away, and Morata scored twice in the header, continuing the "blood suppression" of Osasuna.

March 2025: Atletico Madrid beat the opponent 2-0 at home, and the forward combination of Griezmann and Depp completely broke through Osasuna's defense.

Controversial Moment: In 2017, Atletico Madrid lost two consecutive penalty kicks in 2 minutes, but in the end they still won 3-0. While exposing their penalties, they also highlighted the crushing of their overall strength.

Although historical data is one-sided, Osasuna has 8 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses at home this season, and has lost only 1.35 goals per game. It can be called a "middle-level fortress". Whether it can break the curse is worth paying attention to.

2. Analysis of fighting intention: Atletico Madrid sprints for the Champions League, Osasuna defends home honors

Atletico Madrid: The battle of redemption between Champions League qualification and Simeone

Points situation: Atletico Madrid currently ranks third with 70 points, only 25 behind second place Real Madrid. The remaining two rounds need to ensure a draw to compete for a higher ranking, ensuring direct advancement to the Champions League group stage.

Recent status: 2 wins and 1 draw in the last three rounds of the league and consecutively closed zeroes. The combination of Jimenez and Lenormann on the defensive end has become increasingly stable (conceding 27 goals in the league, second-small in La Liga). However, the away performance fluctuated significantly, with only 1 win in the last five away games and was blocked by the relegation team Las Palmas, exposing the problem of weak attacks.

Key Player: Griezmann contributed 45 key passes this season (15th in the league). Morata has recovered recently, but Simeone said bluntly that he "needs to show his courage at critical moments."

Osasuna: Home dignity match without desires and no desires

Points positioning: 45 points ranks 11th, with no worries about relegation and no hope for European competition, the fighting spirit is more concentrated on the expectations of home fans.

Tactical core: The forward Budimir hit 19 goals this season (3rd in the league), and shot 33 times (7th in the league). His fulcrum and Zaragoza's breakthrough cross are the lifeline of the offensive.

Psychological Advantage: defeated Atletico Madrid 2-0 at home last season, ending the record of losing streak in the confrontation. This game may copy the classic script of "fighting the big with small".

3. Institutional index and pivot: Atletico Madrid received cautious support, and the draw risk rose

Initial index: Mainstream institutions opened Atletico Madrid and allowed 0.5 goals to be medium and low, while some radical institutions had risen to 0.75 goals to be super high, but then generally pulled back to 0.25 goals to be watered, reflecting concerns about Atletico Madrid's ability to attack away.

Fund flow: More than 70% of the bets are concentrated in Atletico Madrid, but institutions create the illusion of "temptation" by lowering the main winning water level (lowest 0.8), but in fact they prevent the risk of a draw.

Core data comparison

Offensive efficiency: Atletico Madrid averages 54.2% ball possession rate (5th in the league), but the away goal-oriented rate is only 38.1%; Osasuna averages 4.3 shots per game at home, and has higher counterattack efficiency.

Defensive resilience: Atletico Madrid has a free-to-shot rate of 42%, but there are hidden dangers in facing high-altitude ball defense; Osasuna averaged only 1.35 goals per game at home, and the three-center-back system has particularly prominent restrictions on crosses from the wing.

The big ball rate of the confrontation: The total number of goals scored in 4 games in the last 6 matches exceeded 2.5 goals, and the current size index of the institution is stable at 2.5 goals, and it tends to open up.

4. Tactical Game: The wrestling force between high-altitude bombing and wing infiltration

Atletico Madrid's wing blasting and set-piece tactics

Core Weapon: Griezmann's oblique plug and Depp's pull-back will face the sweep of Osasuna's wingback Breton (34 interceptions).

Setting ball threat: Atletico Madrid scored 12 goals through corner kicks this season (4th in the league), and Jimenez's header (110 clearances) may become the key to breaking the game.

Osasuna's defensive counterattack and high-altitude advantage

Quick conversion: Budimir averaged 4.1 times per game (3rd in the league), paired with Zaragoza's wing breakthrough, targeting Atletico Madrid's full-back's gap after getting in.

Midfielder strangle: Oroz (34 key passes) needs to avoid Barrios (34 interceptions) and cut off Atletico Madrid's midfield exit route.

5. Results prediction: Atletico Madrid has a small victory or a draw ending

Comprehensive fundamentals and data, Atletico Madrid has a stronger sense of fighting and the depth of the lineup, but the away weak and offensive efficiency restricts its performance; Osasuna is resilient at home, but lacks absolute upset strength. The organization draws the game, and the score is unbeaten. The score is 1-1. If you retreat to 0.25 goals on the spot, you need to be wary of the possibility of a draw.