World Cup qualifiers: Can Nordic Vikings Sweden continue to win streak? Slovenia vs Sweden

World Cup qualifiers: Slovenia vs Sweden

Match time: September 6, 2025 02:45 Saturday

Preface: As the representative of the "technical flow" of European football, the showdown between Sweden (15th in the world) and Slovenia (52nd in the world) can be regarded as a typical collision between "system football" and "resilience football". In the past six official encounters between the two sides, Sweden has the upper hand with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with the UEFA European League double-killing their opponents 2-0 and 1-1 respectively in 2022. This advantage is not only reflected in the generation difference of FIFA ranking, but also in the all-round crushing of tactical execution, individual players' ability and competition experience. Sweden reached the quarterfinals in the last World Cup, with Premier League players such as Isaac and Kulusevsky in the core lineup at their peak; while almost all the players of Slovenia team come from the local league or the low-level Eastern European leagues, the only highlight is Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Obrak (save success rate is 82%).

The team's recent situation:

Slovenia has 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the last 10 games, scored only 10 goals on the offensive end (1.0 goals per game), conceded 10 goals on the defensive end (1.0 goals per game), and had a goal difference of 0. The team's biggest weakness is that it lacks ability to attack. It only broke through opponent's goal twice in the last 6 official games, and relied on set pieces (accounting for 40% of the total goals). Main center defender Wilikovic (78% success rate in the top score) and goalkeeper Oblak are the pillars of the defense, but the injury of right back Zaitz makes it difficult to defend the wing. The state of this game is not very good compared to the past.

Sweden has 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 10 games, scored 30 goals on the offensive end (3.0 goals per game), conceded 9 goals on the defensive end (0.9 goals per game), and had a goal difference of +21. The team swept Liechtenstein 5-0 in the first round of the 2025 World Cup qualifiers and defeated Kosovo 4-1 in the second round, showing terrifying attack firepower. Core players Isaac (9 goals in the last 10 games of the national team) and Kulusevski (3 goals and 5 assists) are in full swing, but the defense is hit by injuries: Manchester City's main central defender Gvadiol is absent due to a knee ligament injury, and right back Olsson is also unable to play, forcing coach Andersson to use substitute center back Lindelof and wingback Craft. In the midfield, Arsenal core Odegao may be absent due to Achilles tendonitis, and Moises Kessedo needs to shoulder more organizational responsibilities. This time the defense line is in poor condition, it may be possible to maintain an offensive posture throughout the game to make up for the weakness on the defense line.

Event analysis:

Slovenia is expected to continue to use the 5-4-1 iron barrel array to limit opponent penetration by compressing space and dense defense. Specific strategies include: implementing double-teams against Swedish midfield core Odegao, making crosses from the wing but focusing on protecting the middle lane, and using Wilikovic's high-altitude advantages to resolve the threat. The counterattack end relies on the speed impact of right-wingback Beric and forward Sheshko, but insufficient control in the midfield (38% per game possession rate) may lead to limited counterattack opportunities.

Sweden will adopt a 4-3-3 formation, combining crossing from the side and penetration from the middle. The middle lane guarded by Isaac is the main offensive channel, and his "high and low matching" with Kulusevsky can target the weakness of the Slovenian central defender's slow turn. In the midfield, Kesedo's dispatch and Fosberg's back insertion are the key to breaking the situation, but Odgao's absence may affect the sense of offensive hierarchy. The defense line is a little thin because of Gvadior's absence, and it needs to rely on the experience of veteran Lindelof to stabilize the morale of the army.

Sweden's technical advantages and offensive firepower are sufficient to break through Slovenia's defense line. Although the defense line injury affects stability, Isak and Kulusevsky's experience can still dominate the rhythm of the game. Slovenia's Iron Barrel may persist in the half, but it is difficult to resist the opponent's continued pressure after its physical fitness declines. Oblak's divine pounce may delay the conceding, but it cannot change the direction of the game.