Tottenham vs Burnley event analysis: Home court advantage + historical crush, can we continue the victory?

Historical confrontations have an absolute advantage

Tottenham have won 8 wins against Burnley in the last 10 times, and have maintained a 6-game winning streak against Burnley at home, including a 3-1 reversal victory in 2024. Burnley has only 1 draw and 8 losses in the last 9 away matches against Tottenham, with a significant psychological disadvantage. Tottenham's set-piece tactics (two goals from set-pieces in the European Super League Cup) and Romero + Van der Fen's aerial advantage (78% success rate in the top score) may become the key to breaking the situation.

Injury impact and tactical game

Tottenham midfield core Madison and Kulusevsky were injured, and the midfield creativity was damaged, but new aid Kudus was in excellent form in the preseason (2 goals and 1 assist), with a 68% breakthrough success rate on the wing. Although Burnley lost the main goalkeeper Trafford, his defense was stable during the Championship (conceded only 16 goals in 46 games), his counterattack efficiency was outstanding in the preseason, and veterans such as Sterling and Kant were experienced.

data model and forecast

technical model shows that Tottenham's winning rate is 62.5%, and Burnley's defensive resilience may create a draw (probability 23%). Combining institutional odds and capital flow (main win transaction volume accounts for 66.8%), Tottenham Hotspur's probability of a small home win is relatively high. Beware of the physical potential of Tottenham’s defense line (concentration drops by 20% after 70 minutes) and Burnley’s counterattack speed (Oldorbert 34km/h).

Conclusion

Tottenham Hotspur's home advantage + historical record support, it is highly likely to score three-pointers, but Burnley's defensive counterattack may create suspense. I am optimistic about Tottenham's 2-1 victory, and the set piece may become a winner! Do you think Tottenham can get off to a good start?