Monday 001 World Cup qualifiers> Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia

Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia Pre-match analysis

1. Points situation and event background

1. Key battles for qualifying in the group

Kazakhstan currently ranks third in Group J with 1 win, 0 draw, 1 loss, 3 points, and North Macedonia temporarily ranks second with 1 win, 1 draw, 0 loss, 4 points. If North Macedonia wins in this game, it will closely follow Wales at the top (5 points); if Kazakhstan loses again, it may be overtaken by Belgium, making the qualifying situation even worse. Both teams need to strive for victory to consolidate their hopes of advancement.

2. Historical Confrontation and Psychological Confrontation

The two teams have won one game in the last two confrontations, the most recent time was in the 2023 friendly match, with North Macedonia winning 2-1 at home. Kazakhstan's home court artificial turf and summer heat (up to 35°C) may become "stealing weapons", but North Macedonia's stable state with 6 wins and 2 draws in the last 8 main games has a more psychological advantage.

2. Highlights Analysis of player status

Kazakhstan:

Maxim Samorodov (forward)

contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 3 national team matches, which is one of the few highlights on the front line. Its speed (33.2km/h) and counter-running awareness can target the weakness of slow recovery in North Macedonia's defense line. However, lack of experience in national team competitions, the finishing efficiency (22% shooting conversion rate in the last 5 games) needs to be improved.

Alexander Schshchenatchev (high center)

The 193cm tall Russian Premier League Sochi center averaged 3.1 times per game as a tactical fulcrum, which is the core of the set piece offense. He has participated in creating 1 goal in the last 2 World Cup qualifiers, but he has been unfamiliar with his teammates in the positional battle (the pass success rate is only 68%).

Ismail Tursunov (left back)

has been active on both ends of offense and defense, and has contributed 1 assist in the last 3 games, with a 38% success rate of uploading from the left. However, it is easy to lose position during defense, and the opponent has used the left breakthrough to create three threats in the last 2 games.

North Macedonia:

Elmas (midfielder, Torino)

Serie A contributed 4 goals and 3 assists this season, completing 5 key passes in the first round of the World Cup (3rd in the group). His long-range shooting ability (1.2 per game) and midfield scheduling are the core of North Macedonia's offensive, but recent muscle fatigue may affect the full game performance.

Boyan Miowski (forward, Girona)

His last three national team matches have scored 3 goals, including a countdown against Wales, showing strong psychological quality and sense of smell in front of the goal. The wing impact with a speed of 34.5km/h is the key to North Macedonia's breakthrough, but its confrontation success rate is only 52%. It is necessary to pay attention to the close defense of Kazakh central defender Masimov.

Dimitlevski (goalkeeper, Valencia)

Llazzurri has a 35% clean-up rate. The national team has only conceded 2 goals in the last 5 games, and the goal line technology is stable. However, the club's short substitute time recently may be affected.

III. Official list and injury status

Kazakhstan (expected to be first released 4-4-2):

Goalkeeper: Nuslanbek Kozabayev (Astana)

Defenders: Tursunov (Astana), Masimov (Keirat), Poloz (Almaty Keirat), Zainutzinov (Astana)

Midfielders: Kulibayev (Astana), Jumagaziev (Keirat), Musaev (Keirat), Zainutdinov (Astana)

Forwards: Samorodov (Astana), Shushenatchev (Sochi)

Injury: Main defender Serafimov and midfielder Babensky were absent, and the old captain Ristovs genetic locker room refused to be recruited.

North Macedonia (expected starter 4-2-3-1):

Goalkeeper: Dimitlevski (Valencia)

Defender: Alioski (Jeddah National), Musliu (Saint-Turden), Zaikov (University of Krayova), Dimoski (Belgrade Guerrillas)

Midfielders: Baldi (Bodrum Sports), Atanasov (Nepowomice Forest), Hermas (Turin), Kostadinov (Piaster)

Forward: Miovski (Geron)

Injury: Defensive core Serafimov is absent, and substitute defender Dimoski club plays only 40%.

4. Tactical Game and Recent State

Kazakhstan Tactical System:

Head coach Aliyev adopts a 4-4-2 formation, focusing on defensive counterattack. Fullbacks Tursunov and Zainutzinov frequently insert to create widths, creating a chance for Shushenatchev through crosses (5.2 per game). Midfielder Kulibayev (1.8 steals per game) is responsible for interception, while Jumagaziev (85% pass success rate) dispatches the counterattack rhythm. Settings are an important weapon. Schshchenatchev's header success rate is 68%, but the defense line has lost 16 goals in the last 6 games, exposing the loopholes in the defense.

North Macedonia tactical adjustment:

coach Milevsky continued to use the 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing "midfield strangle + wing attack". Baldi and Atanasov formed a double midfielder to cut off the Kazakhstan midfield pass line; the wing combination of Hermas and Kostadinov (4.1 times per game) used speed to hit the defense line, and Miovsky's running position was connected to attack. However, the average midfielder age is 28 years old, lacks physical reserves, and Serafimov's absence from the defense line has a success rate of high-altitude top-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-squa.

5. Subsequent impact and match prediction

on Kazakhstan: If you win, you can temporarily relieve the pressure on qualifying and accumulate confidence in your subsequent match against Belgium; if you lose, you may withdraw from the top two in the group early, and you need to rely on the hope that other teams will make mistakes. This battle is the key to testing Aliyev's tactical adjustment, especially Shushenchev's fulcrum role and the stability of the defense line. The impact of

on North Macedonia: If

wins, it will consolidate the second position in the group and accumulate strength for the subsequent match against Belgium; if it loses, it may be widened by Wales, and the conflict in the locker room (the head coach publicly criticizes the tacit understanding of the players) may further intensify. Miowski's condition will directly affect the team's offensive efficiency, and his cooperation with Elmas is the key to breaking the situation.

Match prediction:

North Macedonia has the advantage in overall strength and recent form. Miovsky's speed and Elmas' midfield dispatch are expected to tear open the Kazakhstan defense line. However, Kazakhstan's home court artificial turf and high temperatures may affect the rhythm of North Macedonia's pass control, and Shuschenatchev's high-altitude advantage and set-piece tactics are likely to be upset.