Why the draft draw has never been manipulated: The top three last in the next 1,000 years will win 420 top picks

Translator's note: This article was originally published from Forbes, and the author is Mat Issa. The data in the article are as of the original text as of May 13, local time. The views in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform. At the draft lottery, the Dallas Mavericks won the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft with a very small probability of only 1.8%, which shocked the entire basketball world. This is the second consecutive season where the team has an extremely low probability of winning the No. 1 pick - the Atlanta Hawks finally made a No. 1 pick with a 3% chance last year. The two incidents, coupled with the fact that several talented players were selected by the team in their hometown, have led many people to question the effectiveness of the league's lottery mechanism.

Is the NBA draft lottery manipulated? The following are the relevant data:

·2008: Derek Ross was selected by his hometown team Chicago with the Bulls only 1.7% probability.

·2011: After LeBron James left the previous summer, the Cleveland Cavaliers won the No. 1 pick.

·2012: After Chris Paul left, the New Orleans Pelicans won the No. 1 pick.

·2014: The Cleveland Cavaliers won the No. 1 pick, thus having the assets needed to bring Kevin Love to Cleveland.

·2019: After Anthony Davis applied for a trade, the New Orleans Pelicans won the No. 1 pick.

·2025: The Dallas Mavericks won the No. 1 pick after trading Luca Doncic on the trading deadline.

LeBron James even commented on this:

Apparently, conspiracy theorists seem to be a bit too conquering in this situation.

The league's lottery process is highly transparent

To understand why the NBA draft lottery is not arranged in advance, it is necessary to understand the multiple guarantee mechanisms adopted by the league to maintain fairness and effectiveness. The actual lottery draw will be held in a separate room before the lottery results are revealed to the world through ESPN National Live.

Unlike some conspiracy theorists' speculation, this room is not alone in the presence of a few coalition officials who have been asked to keep their secrets. Admittedly, there were members of the league office in the room, but also selected media members and representatives of the team participating in the draw. The

Alliance also disclosed the specific identities of these selected media members:

These are not "relationship households", but 14 senior journalists from well-known media across the United States. So while they feel incredible about the draw results, no one questioned the legitimacy of the draw process.

"This is not manipulated at all. I witnessed the lottery process with my own eyes! We were just unlucky."

This tweet was posted by Andy Larson, a NBA team reporter of the Salt Lake City Tribune. The Utah Jazz he reported was the biggest "victim" of this draw. After a poor record of 17 wins and 65 losses, the Jazz tied with the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards with the highest probability of winning the No. 1 pick. But unfortunately, their final draw result fell to the fifth pick. Even though the team he reported was in such a dilemma, Larson did not express any dissatisfaction with the lottery draw process.

Independent third-party auditing agencies are in charge, in addition to many journalists witnessing this process with their own credibility as a guarantee, the NBA also hired third-party auditing agencies for this draw. The draw process was audited by a witness at Ernst & Young to verify that the entire process was carried out in accordance with the rules.

EY (EY) is a world-renowned professional service company, known as the "big four" accounting firms together with Deloitte, PwC and KPMG. This year, EY's managing partner Mark Dilly attended the lottery as a representative.

EY agrees to be a fair observer of the draft lottery process, which means they are willing to bear legal liability for allowing any violations in the lottery process. Although the possibility of violations cannot be completely ruled out, EY will never sacrifice its credibility to cover up the NBA league. Allowing any fraud will put it at major legal risks, which is tantamount to self-destructing the Great Wall for accounting firms based on credibility. Statistical analysis of low-probability teams winning the No. 1 picks for many low-probability teams, which is indeed surprising. However, from a statistical point of view, there are several reasonable explanations for this phenomenon.

First of all, this is due to the league's adjustments to the lottery draw probability in 2019. That year, the probability of drawing lots was flattened, and the probability of the bottom team winning the No. 1 pick was reduced from 25% to 14%. This means that the Jazz and the three bottom teams this year have only 12.2% more probabilistic advantages than the Mavericks - although the gap is obvious, it is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Secondly, the sample size we face is really limited. After the rules were revised, only 7 draft draws were drawn, and such a data scale was far from enough to verify the stability of the probability distribution.

Although none of us can survive 1,000 years later, it is reasonable to speculate (if the probability remains the same) that in the next 1,000 draws, the bottom three teams in the league will receive the No. 1 picks about 420 times.

We can use playing cards to think similarly. In the blackjack game with eight decks, the probability of getting "Black Jack" (a A and a 10-point card - such as J, Q, K) is 4.75%. Does this mean that Black Jack will appear every 21 hands? Of course not! We often see Black Jack happening in a row. So, why can't such low-probability lottery results appear for two consecutive years?

People can make fun of the Mavericks as if they were favored by the "God of Basketball" and were redeemed for trading Luca Doncic. But in the final analysis, what really saved them was luck, and it was by no means the deliberate arrangement of the top leaders of the league.