Historical conjecture: Thunder that ruins the chances of the dynasty!

This may be the most popular in NBA history "If ":

If Harden, instead of Ibaka, the Thunder would be the first to renew the contract in the offseason that year, what would the future fate of the Thunder, who holds three MVPs? This is an imagination that will always remain in the hearts of many fans.

And now all three players are no longer in the Thunder, we can review the different possibilities of this assumption in terms of consequentialism to some extent.

Time goes back to the summer of 2012, and things are about as follows:

In May of the same year, Harden won the sixth man in the 2011-12 season, and he averaged an excellent substitute score of 16.8 points per game in the regular season. In June, the Thunder lost to the Heat in the Finals with 1 win and 4 losses. Harden's personal data in the five finals fell to 12.4 points, and his shooting percentage was also very different from the regular season. After the season ends, the team can discuss renewal with Harden and Ibaka in advance in October, otherwise they will become restricted free agents in the summer of 2013, and other teams can submit contract offers to grab people.

In August, Thunder and Ibaka signed a four-year, 48 million contract renewal contract. In October, until the start of the 2012-13 season training camp, Harden's team did not reach a consensus with the team, and the two sides had no specific exchanges since August.

Although this does not affect Harden's continued playing for the Thunder in the new season, as the best sixth man, Harden has shown the potential of a star of tomorrow, but due to his poor performance in the finals, the Thunder with a limited budget also has two offensive options, Durant and Westbrook. The salary and team status of Harden want are obviously beyond the team's plan.

Until the eve of the 2012-13 season, most people believed that Harden would enter the new season without a contract renewal, but Presti temporarily launched a trade and found the Houston Rockets as the next home. The transaction details are as follows:

The Thunder won: Kevin Martin, Girimi Lamb, 2013 first-round draft pick (Adams), 2013 second-round draft pick (Abrines), 2014 first-round draft pick (Mickey McGary).

Rockets won: Harden, Cole Aldridge, Day Quinn Cook, Lazar Hayward.

After this deal, the Thunder should have given priority to keeping Harden or Ibaka that summer, or keeping two people at the same time, retaining the championship lineup and continuing to compete for the championship, has become a hot topic of speculation in the hearts of fans.

What makes this speculation more popular are several rumors outside the transaction:

First, the contract that the Thunder opened for Harden was 54 million in four years, with an average annual salary of 13.5 million and the four-year salary of 60 million Harden wanted. The annual salary of 15 million was not big, but the Thunder was tough and refused to give in; secondly, Harden still needed to serve as a substitute in the new season; in the end, the Thunder only gave Harden a few hours to consider, and then withdrew the contract and started the transaction.

There are different versions of these statements, and some of them come directly from Harden himself, especially the time given to him by the team.

What happened later was that Harden immediately signed the new contract he wanted with the Rockets, becoming the team's new ace, shortening the team's reconstruction stage in one fell swoop. The other players the Rockets obtained from the trade basically had little impact, and the discussion could basically be ignored.

Jeremy Lin, who signed a three-year poison contract with the Rockets in the summer, gradually lost his core position, and only stood firm for one season in the starting position, and was eventually traded to the Lakers in the third year of the most expensive contract.

Kevin Martin had limited opportunities in the Thunder. Although the data was good, it had no substantial value. He did not stay in the team after the 2012-13 season. Lamb was once expected by the Thunder, but it was not a suitable choice after all. He left the team till he was rushing to two seasons.

As for the future assets, the Thunder have selected many instant combat powers from the draft picks obtained from the transaction. Adams became the mainstay of the team, and Abrines was also a stable substitute rotation, but now both of them have left. McGary was once considered to have a chance in the second draft in the first round, but the unexpected injury and off-court problems also quickly disappeared in the team's progress.

In the months after the trade, the Rockets and the Thunder played in the first round of the playoffs, and Beverly injured Westbrook's knee, directly closing the Thunder's door to return to the Finals.

The above is the regretful story between Harden and the Thunder, but if the Thunder made other choices, would the ending be different?

Hypothesis 1: If the Thunder renewed the contract with Harden first, Ibaka will become a free agent

The 2012-13 season scored the best 60 wins and 22 losses in the team's history at that time, and this record should not be much improved. However, combined with the unexpected storm of Westbrook being injured by Beverly, Harden will definitely be a more suitable ball-handling option than Martin and Reggie Jackson, who is on the top point guard. And when the Thunder faces the Grizzlies, who also scored the best 56-win record in team history in the second round, they will naturally have more advantages.

But from the perspective of the team's combat power, it is likely that they will be eliminated by the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies' strong level back then has never been able to reach it now.

Therefore, in the 2012-13 season, the results are basically not much different, but in the offseason, the Thunder are likely to lose Ibaka, and naturally there is no draft pick. After choosing Adams later, there will naturally be no connection between Westbrook + Durant + Adams. The Thunder, which is paired with Perkins, Sefrosa, and Reggie Jackson, is basically comparable to the actual version, and is still not enough to win the championship.

But the problem is that the problem of Reggie Jackson competing for the starter will happen before Harden in advance, and Brooks, who lacks flexible dispatch, will find it difficult to get him to do it. Potential internal conflicts are still inevitable..

Hypothesis 2: After renewing Ibaka, Harden successfully renewed his contract

Although he gave up Harden due to his salary, Presti repeatedly expressed his willingness to pay taxes when necessary, especially after Durant left the team, he exceeded the luxury tax line many times. Since this is the case, it seems that the Thunder made such a mistake in breaking up the core lineup because of the price difference of less than 2 million yuan.

Maintaining the core lineup of Durant + Westbrook + Harden + Ibaka, the Thunder will definitely have the opportunity to challenge the Finals again within two or three seasons, and even the favorable situation of more and more basic-paying players joining later. Such a powerful lineup may also be very attractive in recruiting free agents.

It is no exaggeration to say that because of cautious salary control, Presti is likely to miss the opportunity to form cosmic thunder earlier than the Warriors. If Harden and Ibaka were left at the same time, it might have made the Thunder closer and even won the championship, but the championship did not help the small-season profits and long-term operations. The risk of losses caused by paying too high team salaries and luxury taxes is likely to be extremely difficult to make up for.

Maintaining the lineup completely regardless of the consequences is not a guarantee of championship competition. There have been many cases of forced maintenance of the lineup ultimately failing. Oklahoma is not a big city like New York. Even if they successfully compete for the championship, the price they pay in the process is often much greater. What's more, judging by such a small price difference, is it really just because the Thunder is unwilling to pay luxury taxes, which eventually leads to Harden being traded?

Perhaps this is already the price paid by the Thunder senior management to retain the original team and measure the most optimistic expectations for winning the championship, and this is the fate of the small ball market.

Of course, back to the real world, because of Presti's choice, Harden left the team, Martin failed to succeed in replacing him, Lamb disappointed the team, and the priority Ibaka lost athleticism due to injury and was sent to Orlando in the last year of the contract. The remaining Dewey Third Young Master did not win the championship and did not reach the finals again. In the end, Durant complained that the team did not try his best to build the best team, leaving behind the city he once claimed "the best place for me".

Now, the Harden trade at the end of October 2012 was definitely a fatal mistake in Presti's management career, but in any case, the management led by him eventually turned the Thunder into a top team in the league many years later.

Looking back at this choice, in the face of whether to avoid the worst risks and when deciding whether to take risks, the Thunder chose to retreat. This choice may be wrong now, but from the team's perspective, although it may have missed the opportunity to move to the top, maintaining a stable and ordinary life is not completely wrong. This is also the original intention that Presti has always pursued and has never changed in his trading theory.

As for Harden, he eventually got the money and status he asked for, eventually became the top star in the league and won enough personal honors. But after leaving the Thunder, he was unable to return to the finals stage, and he is still working hard to pursue the championship.