Analysis | Rockets offseason outlook: I want to compete for the championship with the current lineup? Try to keep Adams

(The original article was published on May 5, and the author is BobbyMarks, the salary expert of ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion)

This year's playoffs are in full swing, and 14 lottery teams have also been determined. Next, we can analyze how each eliminated team should spend the offseason, including the draft, free agent market and trading market. Which lottery team can draw the No. 1 pick and have the chance to pick Cooper Flag? How are the reconstruction progress of teams such as the Wizards, Jazz and Hornets? ESPN's BobbyMarks analyzes potential options for each team, including a look at the team's roster status, financial status, management priorities, renewals worth paying attention to, team needs, and future draft assets.

Houston Rockets

This season's record: 52 wins and 30 losses (first round exits)

Draft picks this June: expected 9th pick (from the Suns), 59th pick (from the Thunder)

Free agents: Fred VanVleet (team option), Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday (team option), Jessian Tate, Jack McVeigh (restricted), Enfalley Dangt (restricted)

The current status of the team's lineup:

As the second seed in the Western Conference, he was eliminated in the first round, which should be regarded as a failure. But from a more macro perspective, especially considering the Rockets' situation after trading Harden in 2021, this team's performance this season has far exceeded expectations. Since Harden left the team, his bleak season of 17 wins, 20 wins and 22 wins in a row, he has been replaced by the outstanding performance of 41 wins last year and 52 wins this year.

The real test lies in how the Rockets management and coaching staff evaluate the existing roster and solve the shortcomings exposed in the playoffs. This should be fundamentally different from the strategy in the regular season stage. It is undoubtedly correct for the Rockets to adopt a conservative lineup fine-tuning strategy during the regular season this season. "Of course we hope that the current lineup can achieve its maximum potential this year and will conduct a comprehensive assessment after the season ends." Rockets general manager Rafael Stone said in December last year, "but I really look forward to this core lineup leading us to achieve our goals... From a trading perspective, we have basically finished our work."

Under the construction of head coach Uduka, the Rockets have established a clear defensive system. The Rockets ranked fifth in the league in defensive efficiency this season, and at least the next few seasons will have a solid foundation for continued success. They will use the top 10 lottery draws from the Suns to add a talented newcomer to the lineup with Shin Kyung, Jabbarry Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Ethan, Jaylen Green, Dillon Brooks, Van Vreet and Shepard, last year's lottery pick. However, the Rockets may lose veteran center Adams in free agency.

The question now is: is retaining the existing lineup enough to win the championship?

Offseason Financial Status:

VanVleet's $44.9 million team option will directly affect the Rockets' operating space this offseason. Within five days after the final playoff game, the Rockets must decide whether to execute the option. If the first round pick from the Suns and the team options for Van Vreett are included, the Rockets will exceed the luxury tax line of $7.5 million, just reaching the first tycoon line. Another option is not to execute the team option and instead sign a long-term contract with Van Vreett at a lower amount.

If Van Vreet's team option is implemented, the Rockets still have about $12 million in non-guaranteed contract operation space (Aaron Holiday and Langdale). The Rockets need to decide by June 29 whether to convert Landale's $8 million contract into security and whether to execute Aaron Holiday's $4.9 million team option. The top priority of management: the result of the defeat to the Warriors in the first round forced the Rockets to face two core issues. First of all, is the management confident that the current lineup, coupled with a top ten pick, can break through the limitations of a strong team in the regular season? Rockets regular season scoring king Jaylen Green averaged 6 points in the first round of the series, shooting percentage fell to 37.2%, and three-point shooting percentage was only 31.2%. He scored only 8 points and made 5 mistakes in the series G4 defeat. The Rockets lost 12 points in the critical moments of the first three games (10-22), while their regular season score was 26-18, tied with the Cavaliers to win the most critical battles.

This brings up the second question: Does the Rockets need to introduce a star of the best lineup to achieve a qualitative leap? For example, Durant of the Suns, and even Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. If you decide to chase superstars, the Rockets have three core advantages:

1. Draft asset reserves: The Rockets hold five tradable first-round picks in the next seven years, including this year's No. 9 pick, the Suns' unprotected first-round pick in 2027 and the unprotected first-round pick from the Suns or Mavericks in 2029. In addition, the Rockets' own first-round picks for 2028, 2030 and 2032 can also be used for trading.

2. Quality Rookie Contract: The Rockets have five first-round pick bonus contracts (Jabbarry Smith Jr., Ethan, Shepard, Whitmore, Amen Thompson), and the salary structure is extremely flexible.

3. High-value contract: Shin Kyung and Jaylen Green signed a rookie contract renewal contract in October last year. After the "poison clause" was terminated on July 1, they will be eligible for transactions. The two will both have annual salary next season to $33 million. Dillon Brooks has two years left in contract (22.1 million and 20.9 million), which can be used as a key bargaining chip to balance salary.

Retaining Adams should also be a priority. When Adams and Shin Kyung were on the court at the same time, the Rockets netted 30.7 points per 100 rounds, which is the Rockets' most dominant lineup combination. This data is highly consistent with the net efficiency of +30 when the two teamed together during the regular season..

Cannual candidates worth paying attention to:

For the second consecutive offseason, the Rockets will have two players qualified for early renewal before October 21 (last year was Shin Kyung and Jaylen Green, and this year it was Jabbarry Smith and Ethan). Jabbarri Smith Jr. started 194 games in the first three seasons of his career, but was replaced by Amen Thompson at the end of the season. According to the CleaningtheGlass website, in the 19 games he played on the bench, he shot 49.2% from the field and 37.2% from three-pointers. The Rockets netted 7.9 points per 100 games on the court. Ethan averaged career highs this season's average of points (12 points), assists (1.5), steals (1.7), blocks (0.9) and shooting percentage (49%). As the Rockets still have nearly $80 million in buffer space next season, they can adopt a more aggressive renewal strategy for the two players.

Team needs:

If Adams leaves the team as a free agent, finding a substitute center will become a priority. At the same time, Shepard needs to grow into a rotation player as soon as possible. This season, he averaged only 12.6 minutes of playing time and lacked stability in his outside shooting (he averaged 30.7 points and 8.3 assists in three games during his time with the Development League Vipers).

Future Draft Assets:

The Rockets hold a total of 8 future first-round picks, 5 of which can be used for trading in the next seven years. The Rockets' first round pick (protected with the top four picks) in 2026 belongs to the Thunder; however, the Rockets have their own first round pick, the Nets' first round swap rights in 2027, and the Suns' unprotected first round pick. In 2029, the Rockets can choose two higher picks in the Mavericks, Suns and their first round picks. In addition, the Rockets have 7 second round picks available for trading.

Original text: BobbyMarks

Compiled by: Li Taibai